Why Did Copilot+ PCs Make a Dramatic 2024 Debut Only to See Sales Plummet?

2024 might have been dominated by AI advancements overall, but when it comes to AI PCs, the story takes a different turn. The sales figures and insights from industry experts present a stark contrast. Daniel Newman, a respected semiconductor analyst, remarked that the anticipated ‘supercycle’ for AI PCs and smartphones hasn’t quite turned out as expected. When the term ‘bust’ is tossed around, it tends to send shockwaves through investors and consumers alike, painting a rather grim panorama. However, Newman’s extended post on platform X offers some needed perspective on the situation.

Are we indeed witnessing the downfall of AI PCs? Was the excitement around Copilot+ PCs merely overhyped? Do users even desire these AI-driven machines? There’s a lot to unwrap here.

### Understanding AI PCs

Explaining what an AI PC is can be surprisingly tricky right now. Some devices are labeled as AI PCs without being Copilot+ PCs. To draw a parallel, remember when the Tenth Doctor in “Doctor Who” explained time as “a big ball of wibbly-wobbly, timey-wimey stuff”? Similarly, navigating the world of AI PCs and Copilot+ PCs involves a level of sophistication. While both categories overlap, they aren’t identical.

Most Copilot+ PCs initially relied on Qualcomm Snapdragon processors like the Snapdragon X Elite and Snapdragon X Plus. But recently, we’ve seen the entrance of Intel and AMD into this space. Up until now, Qualcomm held a minor share of the PC market during the third quarter of 2024, but these numbers don’t fully capture the demand. Compatibility issues with Arm PCs inhibit some users, and even tech-savvy folks might be put off by non-functioning apps on these devices.

### Windows on Arm

Discussing AI PCs without touching on Windows on Arm would be incomplete. Microsoft has been enhancing the experience on Arm-powered machines for years, with upgrades in Windows 11’s 24H2 version bolstering Arm devices’ performance. The ecosystem of native Windows on Arm applications continues to grow, featuring significant players like Google Chrome and Adobe Photoshop.

For Arm enthusiasts, 2024 marked an impressive stride forward, although not universally accepted. Certain apps still stumble on this platform, and compatibility issues make it a non-starter for many enterprise and creator scenarios.

### Intel and AMD Copilot+ PCs

Fortunately, for those not keen on Arm processors, Intel and AMD have entered the stage. Non-Arm Copilot+ PCs finally offer compatibility and AI features consumers crave. As Ben Wilson pointed out, the x86-64 Intel chips competing with Snapdragon’s battery life is significant.

This compatibility could attract attention across 2025, especially as more devices like the Zenbook S 14 hit the market. If these devices can maintain uptime similar to their Snapdragon counterparts while offering comprehensive app support, the tide might turn.

### AI or Just Upgrades?

One must wonder if AI is the true motivating factor for consumers purchasing these devices. For instance, someone buying a Surface Pro 11 might just appreciate the device itself, with AI features being an afterthought. Reports suggest that AI isn’t driving most PC purchases yet; key attributes like cutting-edge hardware often seal the deal instead.

### Are Copilot+ PCs Already Struggling?

It would be an exaggeration to declare Copilot+ PCs as a failure. However, their launch didn’t quite meet sky-high expectations. Delays in feature rollouts and Qualcomm Snapdragon’s dominance in the early copilot market didn’t help matters. As the term Copilot+ errands different meanings depending on feature sets and hardware, consumer confusion was bound to occur.

The architects behind Copilot+ PCs, namely Microsoft, Qualcomm, Intel, and AMD, have laid a promising groundwork. Yet, realizing tangible success remains to be seen. The pivotal year could well be 2025, testing whether consumers actively opt for Copilot+ PCs out of genuine interest and functionality rather than just cutting-edge specifications. Should the narrative remain unchanged by year’s end, it might necessitate a strategic reassessment from tech titans involved.